Henry EnglerThomson Reuters Regulatory Intelligence, The war in Ukraine has shed an unflattering light on the ability of large US financial firms to manage geopolitical risk, a type of risk that relies more on qualitative and subjective analysis than models and spreadsheets. How to factor geopolitical risk into technology strategy | EY - US Trending US pandemic response and relief funding - proactively mitigating fraud, waste and abuse 2 Feb 2023 The COO Imperative: How human emotions can unlock supply chain success 23 Jan 2023 Consulting 2023 Global economic outlook: Transforming uncertainty into opportunity Atlas Risk Group is a geopolitical risk analysis, consulting, and advisory services firm founded by Omer Aziz and Shane Sencal-Tremblay. For example, the Iran nuclear talks have significant regional and global consequences. accounting technology, guidance, and expertise, Let us help you solve We offer a unique combination of advanced analytical methods and an innate understanding of intelligence gathering other security sources don't possess. Our . & account inquiries, For CA: Do not sell my personal information. Subscribed to {PRACTICE_NAME} email alerts. Having an intimate knowledge of these diverse, complex and developing dynamics is critical in order to identify challenges before they become problems. /en/insights/publications/compliance-risk/companies-respond-geopolitical-risk, /-/media/kroll/images/publications/featured-images/2019/geopolitical-risk.jpg?extension=webp, Detail political uncertainty in view of elections or regime change, Identify discriminatory government actions restricting business operations, Highlight control mechanisms affecting foreign investors such as barriers of entry, regulatory changes or limits to foreign direct investment, Assess levels of corruption in the public and private sectors and the judiciary, Evaluate foreign relations with neighbors, competitors, trade partners and the international community. In the next two decades, competition for global influence is likely to reach its highest level since the Cold War. many global companies are seeking their own form of strategic autonomy to navigate ChinaUS relations. Indeed, in its most recent geopolitical risk dashboard, the BlackRock Investment Institute put a technological decoupling between China and the United States as the third highest risk, with a widening of the conflict in Ukraine between NATO and Russia and major cyber-attacks causing significant damage to infrastructure and financial markets seen as the top two risks. Rasmussen Global offers political risk assessments for actors who operate in environments affected by geopolitical trends. Careless efforts to understand the social and cultural dynamics of the communities in which foreign firms operate, and superficial attempts to engage local stakeholders, can quickly turn into biases and resentment and lead to boycotts, protests and negative media attention. Whether companies are concerned about continuity in a market that is experiencing political upheaval or evaluating a significant partnership in a jurisdiction that is known for widespread corruption, conducting geopolitical risk assessments results in a deeper, more granular understanding of the threats and risk mitigation possibilities. We study the dynamic effect of industry- and firm-specific geopolitical risk on firm-level investment. Meanwhile continuing shortages of raw materials (39%), logistics and warehousing (35%) and components (33%) are all . The value of being able to anticipate, synthesize, and harness risk for potential gain has never been greater. Our Asia-Pacific footprint is now a huge advantage.. Governments can confiscate assets, nationalize property, breach contracts, impose embargos or prohibit trade with specific countries. Access daily analysis of world events, detailed country reports, proprietary country and sovereign risk ratings, and comprehensive economic forecasts and historical data to assess your companys investments and future growth, Foresight Security for Corporate Security Article (7 pages) Geopolitical risk is at the top of the CEO agenda, according to McKinsey's latest survey of global economic conditions. . Channeling the policy debates under way in the European Union,
Case Study 1
Many company boards already deliberate geopolitical risks to one degree or another. Tailored, high-impact executive workshops, Speaking engagements and macro strategy conversations. Creating short-term, midterm, and long-term response strategies ensures that a company can not only handle a fast-changing situation or emergency but also make the investments needed to seize opportunities and become more resilient. Our geopolitical risk intelligence solutions provide end-to-end coverage of political, violent, sovereign, banking and investment risk worldwide. In 2020, it will move beyond strategic tech . All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. | Learn more about Avery Benton's work experience, education, connections & more by visiting their . Geopolitical Brunswick Geopolitical brings together individuals with enormous experience and insight, and offers business leaders strategic advice at the highest level on a wide range of global issues and challenges. The decoupling of the US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology, talent, and investment. Designed for pro-active corporate security teams with granular forecasts and location specific risk analysis for 211 geographies. legal content, expertise, and technology, Find essential resources Winning companies take calculated risks to improve profitability through both tailwinds and headwinds. Eurasia Group's advisory and consulting business is built upon a research platform of leading political risk analysts and management consultants with deep country and sector expertise. In a global business environment characterized both by hypercompetition and intensifying geopolitical headwinds, it is no longer enough for companies with global footprints to only react defensively. But the discussions often focus on a specific investment, project, or market entry or exit. 4. Already a member? Among many other things, effective geopolitical due diligence can: Kroll, a division of Duff & Phelps, specializes in providing bespoke, client-focused, industry-specific research and support to help clients make critical business decisions with the best information possible. "dots": false,
Thats one finding from the US National Intelligence Councils report Global Trends 2040: A more contested world. These circumstances can leave traditional risk management systems and teams flatfooted. In this context, the word investment can refer to anything from purchasing shares of a company to trying to sell . Adept & highly organized self-stater. Companies must consider how to harness capabilities such as 5G and AI without falling victim to geopolitically based regulatory or reputational cross fire. And differences can dissolve into disagreements about risk and And a narrative that works in one place could inhibit market opportunities in another or create sensitivities among regions. Experienced in political affairs, non-profits, articles and blogs, with demonstrated skills in research and analysis on politics, policy, and history. Reporting focuses on both incident analysis and trend monitoring, providing forward looking assessments to facilitate proactive risk management decision making and asset . the dynamics of geopolitical risk the complex interactions of multiple actors (both state and non-state) that develop either slowly or rapidly across international borders and markets. The geopolitical risk firm that helps you understand the world. After consulting with top business leaders and legal, public-policy, and risk professionals at Fortune 500 companies in multiple industries, we suggest that company leaders can use a five-pronged approach to managing geopolitical risk. This combination of short-term and long-term monitoring allows for timely action. Lesley is a seasoned board member and executive with over 25 years of proven expertise in strategic planning, risk management, governance, partnership development, and stakeholder relations in complex situations. They may have to balance, given the risks, near- and long-term market priorities.
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Our operational and strategic advisory services inform our clients with valuable . The negative effects of climate change and progressively severe and frequent extreme weather events are becoming harder to ignore. ), policy decisions (limits to foreign direct investment, tolerance of corrupt elites, etc.) Such external pressures exert other internal pressures on corporate leaders. Part of managing geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a companys core narrative. We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. Geopolitical Intelligence Group (GIG) is a leading provider of intelligence services, offering strategic and operational insights into the complex geopolitical environment that affects businesses. New market entry Some foreign firms, who were perceived as having received favoritism from the Ethiopian government, were specifically targeted by protesters and the government had to declare multiple states of emergencies that were extremely disruptive to the business operations of those foreign firms. Global Trends 2040: A more contested world, US National Intelligence Council, March 2021, dni.gov. Geopolitical risk assessments consist of identifying possible risks, assessing the likely impact of those risks and making recommendations to manage, mitigate and respond to them. We provide objective and detailed standardized and bespoke risk assessments to companies, investor groups and governments in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. Theyre the industrial goods companies that shift production from one country to another because they correctly predict that rising protectionist sentiment in some key markets will lead to trade actions that will alter the economics of manufacturing. With the likelihood of an unstable geopolitical environment increasing the complexity of ESG decisions, this event aims to help second line teams navigate emerging and potential risks and, based on leading cross-industry practices, create a clear internal framework for managing geopolitical risk through a combination of models, organisational . Business strategy and operational efficiency require constant evaluation in a complex and often volatile environment. Human Rights Violations
The output of this study has implications for portfolio construction and risk management as well as sensible business and governmental practice. Our policy and political risk consulting team helps business leaders to anticipate, analyze and navigate the challenges arising from political developments. Such a test would include a time frame for execution and possible technical options. China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful . Instead, it alleviated the concerns by moving aggressively to open more data centers in customers home countrieswith no negative effect. Note: Political risk consulting firms specializing in analyzing the business risk presented by the political environment in a region or country--including but not limited to regulatory risk in particular sectors, risks of appropriation or nationalization, and broader geopolitical risks. Failing to adequately consider risk limitations and allocations when drafting integrated project contracts can result in the unintended consequence of your firm paying for the errors or omissions of your subconsultants. Minimize risk, optimize strategy, and seize opportunity with Luminae Group Subscribe to our mailing list to receive expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. Boston Consulting Group is an Equal Opportunity Employer. . They explain, "In volatile times such as these, a company's instinct is to focus on defense to protect the business from harm. CFO sentiment got off to a very strong start in the first quarter of 2017. Regulatory Burdens
A confirmation email has been sent to you. Nascent-risk managers use an almost entirely defensive strategy, with minimal organization and processes. Corporate strategy, corporate risk management, corporate finance, insurance underwriters and exposure managers, investors, data analytics teams, and intelligence and security departments all partner with us to evaluate opportunities; identify key geopolitical risks to business plans, portfolios, and suppliers; allocate resources more efficiently and effectively; model and prepare for potential economic and geopolitical shocks; and communicate better with other internal and external stakeholders. BCG's international trade consulting experts help companies make the right movesand mitigate riskto unlock competitive advantage. oil companies, airlines, tech firms ,etc.). The EY survey last year on bank risk management noted that chief risk officers may be underestimating the potency of political change (with) only about half viewing (geo)political risks as among the most important emerging risks over a five-year horizon this is down from 60% in our last survey in 2019. "Geopolitical risks affecting banks or banks' customers have expanded significantly in recent years," according to a global survey report issued late last year from consulting firm EY. Yet, companies find Geopolitical Risk difficult to fully understand and even more challenging to manage. Kroll is not affiliated with Kroll Bond Rating Agency, 2. Geopolitics, corporate governance and ESG. Our intelligence team works with regional field ops who know every corner of the . <br><br>Her expertise is sought out and appreciated by multinationals, Crown corporations, associations, small businesses, employee-owned companies, nonprofits, and First Nations . Provide cogent geopolitical risk . Reuters, The EY survey last year on bank risk management, Monitoring for Reg BI poses bigger challenge as US regulators get serious, Weighing the various approaches to Scope 3 data strategies, 10 Global compliance concerns for 2023: ESG, money-laundering, and regulatory concerns weigh on compliance officers, From values signaling to implementation: Steps for corporate tax leaders to prepare for ESG, Thomson Reuters Institute launches Technology and Innovation Resource Center, Small law firms finding success & challenges in uncertain economy, says new report, Innovation Leveraging Our Expertise to Navigate Geopolitical Risk. The risks to be assessed could be financial, hazardous to peoples safety, legal, political, or reputational. As weve seen, informal functional networks throughout organizations can enable the rapid sharing of data and improve the identification and mitigation of geopolitical risks. Managing geopolitical risk. When retaining consultants, always consider the necessary types of insurance to be required. In the face of fragmentation and uncertainty, many business leaders are responding by intensifying their focus on resilience. It could also apply the system to the entities with which it does business, separating those with which a local office can work without needing additional approval from those that need risk approval and those with which an office should never work with. 5. In volatile times such as these, a companys instinct is to focus on defenseto protect the business from harm. Our methodology allows us to assess differences in operating models and the degree of process maturity relative to industry practices as well as to identify opportunities for improvement. As political frictions inside and among regions heat up, the likelihood increases that they will affect a global enterprises operations, performance, or people.
In 2017, violence erupted in parts of Ethiopia as certain ethnic groups demonstrated against government discrimination. Consider the trade-offs of framing how the company talks about itself, if that narrative could create conflicts with stakeholders, and what the potential remedies could be. To ingrain the importance of external relations throughout their organizations, some companies rotate high performers and potential candidates for upper management into country leadership positions, where risk management becomes one of their duties. Today, we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow, build sustainable competitive advantage, and drive positive societal impact.
The firm serves financial institutions, private equity .
Enter your username or email to reset your password. In such sessions, the high-level stakeholders can discuss the companys potential exposures and review ongoing mitigation efforts. A major global technology company offers another good illustration. Political risk consulting. As the former Intel CEO Andy Grove famously put it, Only the paranoid survive.
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. As a result, the company was able to significantly expand its cloud business and gain advantage over competitors that were slower to act. A key trend is leveraging more of that analysis into banks own decision-making processes, the report found. . 5
Build a geopolitical risk management center of expertise or a network that unites employees across the organization to share expertise and best practices and to ensure collaboration. Yet few companies consistently act on it. We have developed an analytical tool for assessing an organizations geopolitical risk management practices and opportunity. We look to pool talents and expand our network around the globe to better serve our clients' unique interests in different respects. American Express. We evaluated their organizations approaches along three dimensions: the strategic role of geopolitical risk management within the company, the ways in which different parts of the organization are leveraged, and the use of risk management processes and tools. Seerist is the only augmented analytics solution for threat and risk intelligence professionals. Instead, boards can dedicate regular standing time to analyzing how to respond to the geopolitical risks that their enterprises face as part of a broader board effort to build more resilient companies.
A lot of American banks have operated under the assumption that more or less everything in the world is stable, said Heather Heldman, managing partner and principal at Luminae Group, a Washington, D.C.-based geopolitical risk consulting firm. Never miss an insight. Such a unit could, for example, analyze political events that threaten to disrupt the companys operations materially or prepare responses to government inquiries into sensitive topics. .
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All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, age, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity / expression, national origin, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected under federal, state or local law, where applicable, and those with criminal histories will be considered in a manner consistent with applicable state and local laws.Pursuant to Transparency in Coverage final rules (85 FR 72158) set forth in the United States by The Departments of the Treasury, Labor, and Health and Human Services click here to access required Machine Readable Files or here to access the Federal No Surprises Bill Act Disclosure. Others may opt to identify as global entities because of the access it accords them to pursue business opportunities in emerging markets. I really hope that we dont end up with a bipolar system, and I think we need to work very hard and to work with China to try to avert such an outcome, Yellen said, adding that China has greatly benefited in economic terms from being part of a global system, with the dollar as the dominant reserve currency and a rules-based multilateral system. Such a consensus can create a set of guiding principlesand, as importantly, a set of trust-based relationships and mutual understanding across the organizationthat enables rapid, purposeful reaction grounded in a shared set of priorities when risk scenarios play out. Violence and Civil Unrest
Sorry, something went wrong. A counterparty who defaults on a contract, or whose business . Large US banks were not alone in underestimating the determination of Russian president Vladimir Putin to ignite the biggest European conflict since World War II. The degree to which banks systematically analyze political risks varies across the industry.
{"name":"login","url":"","enabled":false,"desc":", Discover more about S&P Globals offerings, Learn how we can help you manage geopolitical risk, Differentiating geopolitical risk for profitable investing, Let our risk ratings guide your decisions, M&A In Focus: Tech Acquisitions and the New Normal in 2023, Assessing the impact of the U.S. Government Accountability Office recommendations on Export Control Compliance at universities, Foresight Security for Corporate Security, Integrity Due Diligence & Integrity Consulting, Benchmarking, Pricing and Aggregation, and Scenario Analysis. International Trade, . Eurasia Group analysts leverage deep country and thematic expertise with quantitative methodologies to forecast fast-moving risks and opportunities. Expropriation
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strategy. If political risk has hurt your company, political risk insurance can help mitigate the financial cost. Operations in countries with poor human rights records can cause supply chain disruptions but can also lead to reputational damage and give rise to class action lawsuits, public boycotts or stockholder divestment campaigns.
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